{
  "spec": "elsegundo-buying-lab-results/1",
  "note": "Synthetic buyers only. Nothing was sold, charged or promised. Seeded and reproducible: run node scripts/buying-lab-sim.mjs to regenerate.",
  "model": "Written by Claude (Anthropic) for elsegundo.xyz, November 3, 2026.",
  "runsPerScenario": 300,
  "defaults": {
    "buyers": 80,
    "agentShare": 0.3,
    "editionSize": 40,
    "listPrice": 10,
    "honesty": 0.8,
    "attention": 0.1,
    "days": 10,
    "rounds": 6,
    "runs": 60,
    "seed": 2026,
    "groupDiscount": 0.8,
    "tipShare": 0.6
  },
  "models": [
    {
      "id": "pledge",
      "name": "Pledge book"
    },
    {
      "id": "group",
      "name": "Group buy with a tipping point"
    },
    {
      "id": "dutch",
      "name": "Descending-price drop"
    },
    {
      "id": "rarity",
      "name": "Editions with rarity tiers"
    },
    {
      "id": "ladder",
      "name": "Price ladder"
    },
    {
      "id": "pooled",
      "name": "AI-pooled order"
    }
  ],
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "people-only",
      "name": "People only, 80 neighbors, 40 copies",
      "input": {
        "agentShare": 0
      },
      "best": [
        "ladder",
        "pledge",
        "rarity",
        "dutch",
        "group",
        "pooled"
      ],
      "models": {
        "pledge": {
          "fill": 0.755,
          "priceRatio": 1.129,
          "revenueShare": 0.852,
          "reliability": 0.615,
          "agentsServed": 0,
          "peopleServed": 30.203,
          "zonesServed": 7.823
        },
        "group": {
          "fill": 0.607,
          "priceRatio": 0.8,
          "revenueShare": 0.486,
          "reliability": 0.607,
          "agentsServed": 0,
          "peopleServed": 24.293,
          "zonesServed": 7.67,
          "tipRate": 1,
          "pledged": 40
        },
        "dutch": {
          "fill": 0.66,
          "priceRatio": 0.986,
          "revenueShare": 0.651,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 0,
          "peopleServed": 26.4,
          "zonesServed": 7.713
        },
        "rarity": {
          "fill": 0.734,
          "priceRatio": 2.01,
          "revenueShare": 1.464,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 0,
          "peopleServed": 29.36,
          "zonesServed": 7.807
        },
        "ladder": {
          "fill": 0.774,
          "priceRatio": 0.933,
          "revenueShare": 0.724,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 0,
          "peopleServed": 30.95,
          "zonesServed": 7.87
        },
        "pooled": {
          "fill": 0.594,
          "priceRatio": 0.759,
          "revenueShare": 0.45,
          "reliability": 0.617,
          "agentsServed": 0,
          "peopleServed": 23.75,
          "zonesServed": 7.63,
          "clearing": 0.759,
          "pickupRuns": 4.473
        }
      },
      "pledgeWeighting": {
        "record": 0.615,
        "stated": 0.612,
        "priceOnly": 0.62
      },
      "calibration": {
        "people": {
          "brier": 0.254,
          "bins": [
            {
              "range": "50-59",
              "n": 3993,
              "keptRate": 0.456
            },
            {
              "range": "60-69",
              "n": 19418,
              "keptRate": 0.519
            },
            {
              "range": "70-79",
              "n": 29232,
              "keptRate": 0.591
            },
            {
              "range": "80-89",
              "n": 25074,
              "keptRate": 0.678
            },
            {
              "range": "90-100",
              "n": 11086,
              "keptRate": 0.747
            }
          ]
        },
        "agents": {
          "brier": null,
          "bins": [
            {
              "range": "50-59",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            },
            {
              "range": "60-69",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            },
            {
              "range": "70-79",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            },
            {
              "range": "80-89",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            },
            {
              "range": "90-100",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            }
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "some-agents",
      "name": "30% with a personal AI agent",
      "input": {
        "agentShare": 0.3
      },
      "best": [
        "pledge",
        "dutch",
        "rarity",
        "ladder",
        "pooled",
        "group"
      ],
      "models": {
        "pledge": {
          "fill": 0.971,
          "priceRatio": 1.182,
          "revenueShare": 1.149,
          "reliability": 0.74,
          "agentsServed": 20.097,
          "peopleServed": 18.76,
          "zonesServed": 7.95
        },
        "group": {
          "fill": 0.743,
          "priceRatio": 0.8,
          "revenueShare": 0.595,
          "reliability": 0.743,
          "agentsServed": 16.033,
          "peopleServed": 13.7,
          "zonesServed": 7.817,
          "tipRate": 1,
          "pledged": 40
        },
        "dutch": {
          "fill": 0.934,
          "priceRatio": 1.097,
          "revenueShare": 1.025,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 19.957,
          "peopleServed": 17.403,
          "zonesServed": 7.933
        },
        "rarity": {
          "fill": 0.858,
          "priceRatio": 1.842,
          "revenueShare": 1.576,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 13.8,
          "peopleServed": 20.503,
          "zonesServed": 7.897
        },
        "ladder": {
          "fill": 0.843,
          "priceRatio": 0.963,
          "revenueShare": 0.814,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 16.687,
          "peopleServed": 17.04,
          "zonesServed": 7.927
        },
        "pooled": {
          "fill": 0.797,
          "priceRatio": 0.752,
          "revenueShare": 0.6,
          "reliability": 0.741,
          "agentsServed": 16.9,
          "peopleServed": 14.98,
          "zonesServed": 7.873,
          "clearing": 0.752,
          "pickupRuns": 6.23
        }
      },
      "pledgeWeighting": {
        "record": 0.74,
        "stated": 0.735,
        "priceOnly": 0.738
      },
      "calibration": {
        "people": {
          "brier": 0.253,
          "bins": [
            {
              "range": "50-59",
              "n": 2358,
              "keptRate": 0.452
            },
            {
              "range": "60-69",
              "n": 11295,
              "keptRate": 0.518
            },
            {
              "range": "70-79",
              "n": 17968,
              "keptRate": 0.595
            },
            {
              "range": "80-89",
              "n": 16157,
              "keptRate": 0.675
            },
            {
              "range": "90-100",
              "n": 7328,
              "keptRate": 0.753
            }
          ]
        },
        "agents": {
          "brier": 0.092,
          "bins": [
            {
              "range": "50-59",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            },
            {
              "range": "60-69",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            },
            {
              "range": "70-79",
              "n": 402,
              "keptRate": 0.851
            },
            {
              "range": "80-89",
              "n": 17977,
              "keptRate": 0.887
            },
            {
              "range": "90-100",
              "n": 21669,
              "keptRate": 0.91
            }
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "mostly-agents",
      "name": "70% with a personal AI agent",
      "input": {
        "agentShare": 0.7
      },
      "best": [
        "pledge",
        "dutch",
        "pooled",
        "rarity",
        "ladder",
        "group"
      ],
      "models": {
        "pledge": {
          "fill": 1,
          "priceRatio": 1.354,
          "revenueShare": 1.354,
          "reliability": 0.858,
          "agentsServed": 35.257,
          "peopleServed": 4.743,
          "zonesServed": 7.963
        },
        "group": {
          "fill": 0.888,
          "priceRatio": 0.8,
          "revenueShare": 0.71,
          "reliability": 0.888,
          "agentsServed": 33.9,
          "peopleServed": 1.607,
          "zonesServed": 7.947,
          "tipRate": 1,
          "pledged": 40
        },
        "dutch": {
          "fill": 1,
          "priceRatio": 1.302,
          "revenueShare": 1.302,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 35.397,
          "peopleServed": 4.603,
          "zonesServed": 7.977
        },
        "rarity": {
          "fill": 0.965,
          "priceRatio": 1.798,
          "revenueShare": 1.734,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 31.883,
          "peopleServed": 6.713,
          "zonesServed": 7.973
        },
        "ladder": {
          "fill": 0.938,
          "priceRatio": 1.002,
          "revenueShare": 0.941,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 31.877,
          "peopleServed": 5.63,
          "zonesServed": 7.957
        },
        "pooled": {
          "fill": 0.993,
          "priceRatio": 0.751,
          "revenueShare": 0.746,
          "reliability": 0.846,
          "agentsServed": 34.32,
          "peopleServed": 5.417,
          "zonesServed": 7.97,
          "clearing": 0.751,
          "pickupRuns": 7.15
        }
      },
      "pledgeWeighting": {
        "record": 0.858,
        "stated": 0.854,
        "priceOnly": 0.843
      },
      "calibration": {
        "people": {
          "brier": 0.251,
          "bins": [
            {
              "range": "50-59",
              "n": 467,
              "keptRate": 0.478
            },
            {
              "range": "60-69",
              "n": 2593,
              "keptRate": 0.524
            },
            {
              "range": "70-79",
              "n": 4688,
              "keptRate": 0.607
            },
            {
              "range": "80-89",
              "n": 4578,
              "keptRate": 0.671
            },
            {
              "range": "90-100",
              "n": 2338,
              "keptRate": 0.75
            }
          ]
        },
        "agents": {
          "brier": 0.091,
          "bins": [
            {
              "range": "50-59",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            },
            {
              "range": "60-69",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            },
            {
              "range": "70-79",
              "n": 631,
              "keptRate": 0.851
            },
            {
              "range": "80-89",
              "n": 31021,
              "keptRate": 0.891
            },
            {
              "range": "90-100",
              "n": 38039,
              "keptRate": 0.908
            }
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "small-people",
      "name": "Small run, people only: 30 neighbors, 25 copies",
      "input": {
        "buyers": 30,
        "editionSize": 25,
        "agentShare": 0
      },
      "best": [
        "ladder",
        "pledge",
        "rarity",
        "group",
        "dutch",
        "pooled"
      ],
      "models": {
        "pledge": {
          "fill": 0.461,
          "priceRatio": 1.122,
          "revenueShare": 0.521,
          "reliability": 0.62,
          "agentsServed": 0,
          "peopleServed": 11.513,
          "zonesServed": 6.147
        },
        "group": {
          "fill": 0.425,
          "priceRatio": 0.725,
          "revenueShare": 0.34,
          "reliability": 0.652,
          "agentsServed": 0,
          "peopleServed": 10.617,
          "zonesServed": 5.713,
          "tipRate": 0.907,
          "pledged": 18.413
        },
        "dutch": {
          "fill": 0.387,
          "priceRatio": 0.993,
          "revenueShare": 0.385,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 0,
          "peopleServed": 9.683,
          "zonesServed": 5.7
        },
        "rarity": {
          "fill": 0.448,
          "priceRatio": 2.296,
          "revenueShare": 1.013,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 0,
          "peopleServed": 11.197,
          "zonesServed": 6.077
        },
        "ladder": {
          "fill": 0.55,
          "priceRatio": 0.837,
          "revenueShare": 0.463,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 0,
          "peopleServed": 13.75,
          "zonesServed": 6.697
        },
        "pooled": {
          "fill": 0.28,
          "priceRatio": 0.975,
          "revenueShare": 0.269,
          "reliability": 0.618,
          "agentsServed": 0,
          "peopleServed": 7.003,
          "zonesServed": 4.59,
          "clearing": 0.975,
          "pickupRuns": 0.477
        }
      },
      "pledgeWeighting": {
        "record": 0.62,
        "stated": 0.613,
        "priceOnly": 0.605
      },
      "calibration": {
        "people": {
          "brier": 0.256,
          "bins": [
            {
              "range": "50-59",
              "n": 1452,
              "keptRate": 0.45
            },
            {
              "range": "60-69",
              "n": 7461,
              "keptRate": 0.532
            },
            {
              "range": "70-79",
              "n": 11008,
              "keptRate": 0.587
            },
            {
              "range": "80-89",
              "n": 9235,
              "keptRate": 0.667
            },
            {
              "range": "90-100",
              "n": 4031,
              "keptRate": 0.755
            }
          ]
        },
        "agents": {
          "brier": null,
          "bins": [
            {
              "range": "50-59",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            },
            {
              "range": "60-69",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            },
            {
              "range": "70-79",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            },
            {
              "range": "80-89",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            },
            {
              "range": "90-100",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            }
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "small-agents",
      "name": "Small run, half with agents: 30 neighbors, 25 copies",
      "input": {
        "buyers": 30,
        "editionSize": 25,
        "agentShare": 0.5
      },
      "best": [
        "pledge",
        "dutch",
        "ladder",
        "group",
        "rarity",
        "pooled"
      ],
      "models": {
        "pledge": {
          "fill": 0.732,
          "priceRatio": 1.172,
          "revenueShare": 0.858,
          "reliability": 0.777,
          "agentsServed": 12.797,
          "peopleServed": 5.503,
          "zonesServed": 7.233
        },
        "group": {
          "fill": 0.637,
          "priceRatio": 0.792,
          "revenueShare": 0.51,
          "reliability": 0.774,
          "agentsServed": 10.083,
          "peopleServed": 5.843,
          "zonesServed": 6.98,
          "tipRate": 0.99,
          "pledged": 20.747
        },
        "dutch": {
          "fill": 0.701,
          "priceRatio": 1.132,
          "revenueShare": 0.793,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 12.717,
          "peopleServed": 4.817,
          "zonesServed": 7.193
        },
        "rarity": {
          "fill": 0.574,
          "priceRatio": 2.211,
          "revenueShare": 1.257,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 8.693,
          "peopleServed": 5.657,
          "zonesServed": 6.737
        },
        "ladder": {
          "fill": 0.646,
          "priceRatio": 0.872,
          "revenueShare": 0.566,
          "reliability": 1,
          "agentsServed": 10.773,
          "peopleServed": 5.38,
          "zonesServed": 7.04
        },
        "pooled": {
          "fill": 0.506,
          "priceRatio": 0.915,
          "revenueShare": 0.459,
          "reliability": 0.796,
          "agentsServed": 8.81,
          "peopleServed": 3.833,
          "zonesServed": 6.347,
          "clearing": 0.915,
          "pickupRuns": 1.743
        }
      },
      "pledgeWeighting": {
        "record": 0.777,
        "stated": 0.78,
        "priceOnly": 0.791
      },
      "calibration": {
        "people": {
          "brier": 0.263,
          "bins": [
            {
              "range": "50-59",
              "n": 706,
              "keptRate": 0.458
            },
            {
              "range": "60-69",
              "n": 3580,
              "keptRate": 0.515
            },
            {
              "range": "70-79",
              "n": 5413,
              "keptRate": 0.59
            },
            {
              "range": "80-89",
              "n": 4785,
              "keptRate": 0.65
            },
            {
              "range": "90-100",
              "n": 2016,
              "keptRate": 0.718
            }
          ]
        },
        "agents": {
          "brier": 0.092,
          "bins": [
            {
              "range": "50-59",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            },
            {
              "range": "60-69",
              "n": 0,
              "keptRate": null
            },
            {
              "range": "70-79",
              "n": 264,
              "keptRate": 0.886
            },
            {
              "range": "80-89",
              "n": 11412,
              "keptRate": 0.892
            },
            {
              "range": "90-100",
              "n": 13942,
              "keptRate": 0.906
            }
          ]
        }
      }
    }
  ]
}